Research on Integration of Urban Disaster Resilience and Planning Strategies Based on Seismic Fragility
FEI Zhitao, ZHOU Limin, GUO Xiaodong, MA Donghui
Abstract：
Currently, integrating the quantitative measurement of urban disaster resilience into spatial planning remains challenging, primarily manifested in the lack of probabilistic models for loss and recovery, unclear integration approaches, and unconnected framework interfaces. To address these issues, this study first draws on the experience of urban seismic disaster prevention planning to analyze the new demands from a resilience perspective and the applicability of incorporating the vulnerability model concept. Through a literature review, the common assumptions and model forms of vulnerability research in the seismic field-based on empirical, simulation, and comprehensive methods–are systematically reviewed and further extended to new directions in urban vulnerability research encompassing multi-hazards and multi-evaluation objects. Furthermore, this paper proposes an integration approach, framework, and interface connecting urban disaster resilience with planning strategies based on the vulnerability concept. First, it explores the interactive relationship between planning strategies and the threshold points on resilience curves representing loss and recovery processes and their probabilistic models. Second, it provides an association matrix linking multi-type planning objects with strategies for fortification, spatial layout, facilities, and regulation aimed at mitigating losses and enhancing recovery, thereby expanding the typology of resilience planning strategies. Third, it links engineering and spatial elements as hierarchical carriers with disaster resilience, establishing a functioning integration interface. Taking the building resilience strategy in the seismic disaster prevention planning of the central urban area of a county-level city in eastern China as a case study, the effectiveness of the integration framework is validated through a technical route of “resilience goal setting–loss and recovery assessment–gap calculation and analysis–guarantee and recovery strategy”. The findings indicate that the vulnerability model concept provides a probabilistic tool for the quantitative assessment of urban disaster resilience. The proposed conceptual framework demonstrates practical operability, facilitates comparative gap analysis against planning goals and strategy formulation, and is expected to drive the deep integration of urban disaster resilience and planning strategies.