Thermal Health Risk Identification, Assessment and Urban Design Intervention in High-Density Cities: A Case Study of Macao
Abstract：
Frequent extreme heat events caused by global climate change can lead to large
health risks and societal impacts by increasing health-related morbidity and mortality.
These risks and impacts are exacerbated in high-density city because of the Urban Heat
Island Effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic
activities. To better manage heat related health risks, accurate identification of spatial
distribution and risk level of urban thermal health risks is required. This paper takes
Macao as a study case to explore thermal health risk assessment methods and planning
strategies from the perspective of urban design. Firstly, the types and differences of
thermal health risks in different regions are summarized, and the influencing mechanism
of urban space on thermal health is analyzed. Secondly, thermal health risks evaluation
models covering hazards, exposure and vulnerability are constructed. In addition, maps
of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and thermal health risks in Macao are drawn based on
remote sensing image data, meteorological data, population data, social and economic
data using ENVI, ArcGIS, analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally,
planning strategies are proposed based on risk assessment results which provide references
for thermal health risk management of high-density cities in China.