王德 任熙元 胡杨

Wang De, Ren Xiyuan, Hu Yang

揭示居民时空活动背后的行为决策机制，模拟不同政策情景下个体在城市时空环境中的活动选择，对于实现以人为本的发展目标、落实时间城市的规划政策、推动数字化时代的智慧城市建设具有关键作用。在时间城市规划的语境下，本文明确了行为决策建模对于时空间行为研究的意义，提出“时间—空间—决策—活动”四位一体的理论框架，并梳理了时空间行为决策建模的基本要素、效用假设和拟合算法。本文以上海陆家嘴为研究案例，探索出一条“数据采集、模型构建、偏好分析、政策制定、效果预测”的实践路径，并进一步认为时间城市规划应充分了解居民的行为决策机制，协调好个体时间与城市时间的关系、时间规划与空间规划的关系、适应性规划与引导性规划的关系。

Revealing the decision-making mechanism behind residents’ spatiotemporal activities, as well as predicting their choices within urban environments under various policy scenarios, play a crucial role in achieving the goal of people-oriented development, implementing time-based planning policies, and accelerating the development of smart cities in the digital age. In the context of temporal city planning, this paper clarifies the significance of choice modeling in spatio-temporal behavior research, proposes a theoretical framework of ‘Time–Space–Decision–Activity’, and summarizes the methodology of spatiotemporal activity-based choice modeling in terms of basic elements, conditional assumptions, and estimation algorithms. Taking Shanghai Lujiazui as a study case, we explore a practical path encompassing ‘data collection, model formulation, preference analysis, policy making, and behavior simulation’. Moreover, this paper concludes that temporal city planning should get a deeper understanding ofthe decision-making mechanism to coordinate the relationship between individual time and urban time, between spatial planning and temporal planning, and between adaptive planning and directive planning.

王德，同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，教授。dewang@tongji.edu.cn

任熙元（通信作者），纽约大学坦顿工程学院，博士研究生。xr2006@nyu.edu

胡杨，同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，博士研究生。huyang@tongji.edu.cn

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