费智涛 周利敏 郭小东 马东辉

FEI Zhitao, ZHOU Limin, GUO Xiaodong, MA Donghui

当前城市防灾韧性量化测度纳入规划仍存在困难，体现在损失和恢复概率模型缺乏、融合思路难明确、框架接口未打通等方面。为解决上述问题，本研究首先借鉴城市抗震防灾规划经验，分析了韧性视角下的新需求与易损性模型理念纳入的适用性。其次采用文献研究方法梳理了地震领域基于经验法、模拟方法和综合法的易损性研究的共同假设与模型形式，并进一步推广到多影响灾种、多评估对象的城市易损性研究等新方向。然后提出基于易损性理念的城市防灾韧性与规划策略的融合思路、融合框架和融合接口：一是探讨了损失和恢复过程及其概率模型的韧性曲线阈值点与规划策略的互动关系；二是给出了易损性理念下系统多类型规划对象与设防、布局、设施和管制策略在减少损失、提升恢复方面的关联矩阵，拓展韧性规划策略类型；三是打通了工程、空间作为不同层级的载体与防灾韧性的融合接口。笔者以我国东部某县级市中心城区抗震防灾规划中建筑物的韧性策略为例，通过“韧性目标设定—损失恢复评估—差距计算分析—保障恢复策略”的技术路线验证了融合框架的有效性。研究表明，易损性模型理念可为城市防灾韧性定量评估提供概率化的工具，提出的思路框架具备一定的可操作性，便于与规划目标进行差异对比分析和策略制定，有望推动城市防灾韧性与规划策略的融合。

Currently, integrating the quantitative measurement of urban disaster resilience into spatial planning remains challenging, primarily manifested in the lack of probabilistic models for loss and recovery, unclear integration approaches, and unconnected framework interfaces. To address these issues, this study first draws on the experience of urban seismic disaster prevention planning to analyze the new demands from a resilience perspective and the applicability of incorporating the vulnerability model concept. Through a literature review, the common assumptions and model forms of vulnerability research in the seismic field-based on empirical, simulation, and comprehensive methods–are systematically reviewed and further extended to new directions in urban vulnerability research encompassing multi-hazards and multi-evaluation objects. Furthermore, this paper proposes an integration approach, framework, and interface connecting urban disaster resilience with planning strategies based on the vulnerability concept. First, it explores the interactive relationship between planning strategies and the threshold points on resilience curves representing loss and recovery processes and their probabilistic models. Second, it provides an association matrix linking multi-type planning objects with strategies for fortification, spatial layout, facilities, and regulation aimed at mitigating losses and enhancing recovery, thereby expanding the typology of resilience planning strategies. Third, it links engineering and spatial elements as hierarchical carriers with disaster resilience, establishing a functioning integration interface. Taking the building resilience strategy in the seismic disaster prevention planning of the central urban area of a county-level city in eastern China as a case study, the effectiveness of the integration framework is validated through a technical route of “resilience goal setting–loss and recovery assessment–gap calculation and analysis–guarantee and recovery strategy”. The findings indicate that the vulnerability model concept provides a probabilistic tool for the quantitative assessment of urban disaster resilience. The proposed conceptual framework demonstrates practical operability, facilitates comparative gap analysis against planning goals and strategy formulation, and is expected to drive the deep integration of urban disaster resilience and planning strategies.

费智涛，博士，广州大学公共管理学院，特聘副研究员。milkisfei@163.com

周利敏（通信作者），广州大学公共管理学院，教授，博士生导师。xplm9703579@sina.com

郭小东，北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院，北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾中心，教授，博士生导师。guoxd7797@163.com

马东辉，北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院，北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾中心，研究员，博士生导师。donghuima2022@163.com

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