2026年 第3期 DOI：10.19830/j.upi.2023.182
埃塞俄比亚城镇体系时空演变特征及其影响因素研究
Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Urban System in Ethiopia and Its Influencing Factors
卢宇飞 赵胜波 杨庆礼 王兴平
LU Yufei, ZHAO Shengbo, YANG Qingli, WANG Xingping
关键词：城镇体系；规模结构；空间分布；“一带一路”倡议；埃塞俄比亚
Keywords：urban system; scale structure; spatial distribution; Belt and Road Initiative; Ethiopia
摘要：埃塞俄比亚是共建“一带一路”重要的合作伙伴，当前正处于城镇化快速发展阶段。对埃塞俄比亚城镇体系时空演变特征及其影响因素开展研究，可为其区域与城市协调发展提供依据。基于非洲城镇化数据库Africapolis 中1950—2025 年的人口数据，笔者运用齐普夫定律和核密度分析、标准差椭圆等方法对埃塞俄比亚城镇体系规模结构和空间结构的演变特征进行分析，并从不同维度研究埃塞俄比亚城镇体系变化的影响因素。研究发现：（1）埃塞俄比亚的城镇体系规模结构正逐渐逼近齐普夫标准分布，但尚未达到合理水平；（2）埃塞俄比亚城镇体系的整体空间格局演化受厄立特里亚独立影响较大，空间变迁方向与重大产能合作项目建设等因素密切相关；（3）埃塞俄比亚城镇体系规模结构和空间结构的时空演变，直接或间接受到自然地理、政治历史、经济社会、重大政策等因素的影响。最后，笔者建议从政策干预与能力建设、规划治理、区域开发等层面进一步优化埃塞俄比亚城镇体系，以促进人口和各类资源的合理配置，引导国家、区域和城市健康发展。
Abstract：Ethiopia is the important partner under the Belt and Road Initiative, which is experiencing rapid urbanization currently. Conducting research on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of Ethiopia’s urban system can provide a basis for local regional and urban coordinated development. Based on the population data from 1950 to 2025 in the Africapolis database on African urbanization, this paper employs methods such as Zipf’s Law, kernel density analysis, and standard deviation ellipses to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of Ethiopia’s urban system’s size and spatial structure. It also investigates the influencing factors of changes in Ethiopia’s urban system from various dimensions. This study reveals that: (1) The size structure of Ethiopia’s urban system is gradually approaching the standard distribution of Zipf’s Law but has not yet reached an optimal level; (2) The overall spatial pattern evolution of the urban system in Ethiopia has been significantly influenced by the independence of Eritrea, with spatial direction changes closely related to factors such as the direction of major productive capacity cooperation projects; (3) The spatiotemporal evolution of the size and spatial structure of Ethiopia’s urban system is directly or indirectly affected by factors such as natural geography, political history, socioeconomic conditions, and major policies. In conclusion, it suggests that further optimization of Ethiopia’s urban system should be pursued through policy interventions, capacity building, planning governance, regional development, etc. This optimization aims to promote the rational allocation of population and various resources, guide healthy development at national, regional, and urban levels.
版权信息：
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“‘一带一路’沿线中外产能合作新兴节点城市空间发展与规划研究”（52078115），国家留学基金委国际区域问题研究及外语高层次人才培养项目（国别与区域研究人才），江苏省卓越博士后计划（2025ZB771）
作者简介：卢宇飞，东南大学建筑学院，博士研究生；东南大学—亚的斯亚贝巴大学，联合培养博士生。luyufei@seu.edu.cn
赵胜波，东南大学建筑学院，博士后，助理研究员
杨庆礼，硕士，北京市科学技术委员会，中关村科技园区管理委员会，四级主任科员
王兴平（通信作者），东南大学建筑学院，教授，博士生导师；东南大学可持续产业园区发展与规划国际合作研究中心，主任。wxpsx@seu.edu.cn