张泽 薛璟 耿慧志

ZHANG Ze, XUE Jing, GENG Huizhi

近年来，多个视角的经济学实证研究普遍认为中国城市应重聚人口以带动密度经济效应，与坚持总量控制、密度疏解的大城市管理实践产生了“疏解还是重聚”的政策分歧。为此，本研究强调了中国城市规划工作面临的新形势及其相关统计事实，发现一部分中国大城市核心城区的人口密度已快速下降，可能对服务业发展、消费经济和内需提振产生不利影响。在回溯经济学经典理论的基础上，本研究引介了现代消费城市理论等学术流派对城市密度效应的新论述，强调了人口密度在需求消费端的重要作用。尽管城市治理需要结合经济、生态、社会等多维绩效进行规划决策，但在当前阶段，中国经济正面临“国内需求不足”和“消费抑制之困”，城市规划工作者应充分重视经济学的相关学术发现，并审慎地对中国大城市的人口规划管控政策开展反思和论证。

In recent years, the empirical economic research from different perspectives generally argues that China’s large cities should re-agglomerate population to achieve the density effect, which has led to a policy decision divergence of “re-agglomeration or dispersion” with the urban planners. Therefore, this study reviews the new configuration of population density control in Chinese cities and related statistical facts and found that the population density in the core areas of representative cities has rapidly declined, which may impose adverse effects on the development of the service industry, consumer economy, and domestic demand. Based on reviewing classic economic theories, this study introduces new discussions on urban density by economic schools, including the Consumer City Theory, which emphasizes the important role of urban population density on the demand and consumption side. Although urban governance requires the integration of multidimensional performance such as economy, ecology, and society for planning and decision-making, at the current stage, China’s economy is facing the main pressure of “insufficient domestic demand”. Urban planners should fully pay attention to relevant academic findings in economics and critically review the potential negative effects of China’s urban population planning and control policies.In recent years, the empirical economic research from different perspectives generally argues that China’s large cities should re-agglomerate population to achieve the density effect, which has led to a policy decision divergence of “re-agglomeration or dispersion” with the urban planners. Therefore, this study reviews the new configuration of population density control in Chinese cities and related statistical facts and found that the population density in the core areas of representative cities has rapidly declined, which may impose adverse effects on the development of the service industry, consumer economy, and domestic demand. Based on reviewing classic economic theories, this study introduces new discussions on urban density by economic schools, including the Consumer City Theory, which emphasizes the important role of urban population density on the demand and consumption side. Although urban governance requires the integration of multidimensional performance such as economy, ecology, and society for planning and decision-making, at the current stage, China’s economy is facing the main pressure of “insufficient domestic demand”. Urban planners should fully pay attention to relevant academic findings in economics and critically review the potential negative effects of China’s urban population planning and control policies.

张泽，同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室，助理教授，注册城乡规划师。zhangze47@qq.com 

薛璟，同济大学国豪书院，本科生。2253740@tongji.edu.cn 

耿慧志（通信作者），同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室，教授，博士生导师。genghuizhi@163.com

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