2024年 第4期 DOI：10.19830/j.upi.2022.135
高密度城市热健康风险识别、评估与城市设计干预——以澳门为例
Thermal Health Risk Identification, Assessment and Urban Design Intervention in High-Density Cities: A Case Study of Macao
刘君男 陈天 王柳璎
Liu Junnan, Chen Tian, Wang Liuying
关键词：高密度城市 ；热健康 ；风险评估 ；城市设计 ；澳门
Keywords：High-density City; Thermal Health; Risk Assessment; Urban Design; Macao
摘要：全球气候变化导致极端高温事件频发，加之城市热岛效应影响，使高密度
城市面临较高的热健康风险。为提高高密度城市应对热健康风险的能力，本文以
澳门为例，探讨城市设计视角下的热健康风险识别、评估和应对策略。首先，总
结不同地域的城市热健康风险类型和分异，综述并明晰影响热健康空间要素的作
用路径，为热健康研究提供理论依据。其次，构建热健康风险评估模型，利用
ENVI、ArcGIS、层次分析法、熵权法等技术方法对澳门地区的遥感影像、气象、
人口、社会经济等数据进行时空分布模拟和运算，绘制澳门热健康危险性、暴露
性、脆弱性和综合风险等级区划图，识别各级风险区的空间分布和形态特征。最后，
基于理论综述和评估结果，从城市设计视角对澳门不同风险等级和致险类型的风
险区提出差异化应对策略，为澳门和其他高密度城市应对热健康风险提供参考。
Abstract：Frequent extreme heat events caused by global climate change can lead to large
health risks and societal impacts by increasing health-related morbidity and mortality.
These risks and impacts are exacerbated in high-density city because of the Urban Heat
Island Effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic
activities. To better manage heat related health risks, accurate identification of spatial
distribution and risk level of urban thermal health risks is required. This paper takes
Macao as a study case to explore thermal health risk assessment methods and planning
strategies from the perspective of urban design. Firstly, the types and differences of
thermal health risks in different regions are summarized, and the influencing mechanism
of urban space on thermal health is analyzed. Secondly, thermal health risks evaluation
models covering hazards, exposure and vulnerability are constructed. In addition, maps
of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and thermal health risks in Macao are drawn based on
remote sensing image data, meteorological data, population data, social and economic
data using ENVI, ArcGIS, analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally,
planning strategies are proposed based on risk assessment results which provide references
for thermal health risk management of high-density cities in China.
版权信息：
基金项目：国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目（52061160366），澳门科学技术发展基金（0039/2020/AFJ）
作者简介：刘君男，天津大学建筑学院，博士研究生。liujunnan910316@163.com
陈天（通信作者），博士，天津大学建筑学院，教授，博士生导师 ；城市空间
与设计研究所，所长。chentian5561@vip.sina.com
王柳璎，天津大学建筑学院，博士研究生。huimingfocha@163.com