Activity-based Modeling for Temporal City Planning and Case Study of Shanghai Lujiazui
Abstract：
Revealing the decision-making mechanism behind residents’ spatiotemporal activities, as well as predicting their choices within urban environments under various policy scenarios, play a crucial role in achieving the goal of people-oriented development, implementing time-based planning policies, and accelerating the development of smart cities in the digital age. In the context of temporal city planning, this paper clarifies the significance of choice modeling in spatio-temporal behavior research, proposes a theoretical framework of ‘Time–Space–Decision–Activity’, and summarizes the methodology of spatiotemporal activity-based choice modeling in terms of basic elements, conditional assumptions, and estimation algorithms. Taking Shanghai Lujiazui as a study case, we explore a practical path encompassing ‘data collection, model formulation, preference analysis, policy making, and behavior simulation’. Moreover, this paper concludes that temporal city planning should get a deeper understanding ofthe decision-making mechanism to coordinate the relationship between individual time and urban time, between spatial planning and temporal planning, and between adaptive planning and directive planning.